When home became dangerous: tracking the hidden crisis of domestic violence through Paraguay’s pandemic years

Andreas Schneider

doi:10.53732/rccsociales/e8975

Autores/as

Andreas Schneider Independent Researcher. Asunción, Paraguay https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5630-1097

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.53732/rccsociales/e8975

Palabras clave:

violencia domestica, cuarentena, Paraguay, series temporales interrumpidas, análisis contrafactual

Resumen

Este estudio evaluó el impacto de los confinamientos por COVID-19 en Paraguay sobre la violencia doméstica en cinco ciudades principales mediante un diseño de series temporales interrumpidas y modelos ARIMA aplicados a datos semanales (2016–2021) para estimar resultados contrafactuales. El análisis de 1.565 casos del Ministerio Público mostró que, contrariamente a lo esperado, las denuncias de violencia doméstica disminuyeron durante los períodos de confinamiento. Se observaron reducciones significativas en tres de las cinco ciudades, siendo Asunción la que registró la mayor disminución. Aunque las denuncias aumentaron en promedio un 19 % anual entre 2016 y 2021, la tasa de crecimiento posterior a la pandemia (15,58 %) se mantuvo por debajo de la observada antes de la pandemia (22,04 %). Las temperaturas más elevadas se asociaron de manera consistente con un mayor número de denuncias, mientras que los feriados se relacionaron con menores niveles de reporte. Las denuncias retomaron una tendencia de crecimiento positiva después de las restricciones, aunque inferior a la observada antes de la pandemia. En conjunto, el estudio no encontró evidencia de un aumento de la violencia doméstica durante los confinamientos en Paraguay y sugiere considerar el subregistro al interpretar datos delictivos en contextos de crisis.

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